Weekly review
Week of 26 October
26 October 2026 – 1 November 2026 · 282 words
Between 26 October and 1 November we had published a prediction before kick-off for 44 fixtures, across 2 days and 15 competitions. We called 32 of them correctly, 72.7%.
Where we were most wrong
Fleetwood Town against Arsenal, in EFL Cup, finished 1–1. We had published Arsenal to beat Fleetwood Town at 70.9%, the largest confidence we placed on anything that did not happen in this period. It stays on the record. A site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
Against last week
Against the week before: 263 settled fixtures then at 44.5%, 44 now at 72.7%, a move of +28.2 points. Volume changed more than accuracy did — down 83% — so the two figures are not measuring quite the same thing: a week with more fixtures is usually a week with more of the competitions we read least well.
What we covered
The period spanned 15 competitions, none with enough fixtures to say anything useful about individually.
How to read all this
One week of 44 fixtures settles very little on its own. A percentage point either way on a sample this size is noise, and we would rather say so than dress it up. What these reviews are for is the shape that emerges when several of them sit side by side: whether a stated 65% keeps landing near 65%, whether the gap between our number and the market's keeps costing us, whether a competition we read badly this week is still being read badly in three. Those are answerable, and they are answerable in public, which is the only reason to publish the bad figures alongside the good ones.
Every figure here comes from predictions published before the match day — never from a re-run after the results were known. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every period we have reviewed → How the model is measured →