Prediction review
Tuesday, 3 November 2026
On 2026-11-03 we had published a prediction for 20 fixtures before kick-off. We called 11 of them correctly.
Our strongest call, and it missed
The most confident thing we published was Alavés to beat Anaitasuna, at 61.1%. It finished 0–0. That is the day's boldest call and its largest error in one fixture. A model that is never surprised is not saying much; the question is whether it is surprised this often at this level, and that only answers itself over months rather than over one evening.
The ones we called close
5 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 2 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 6 competitions: Championship (9), UEFA Champions League (6), League One (2).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →