Prediction review
Saturday, 31 October 2026
On 2026-10-31 we had published a prediction for 96 fixtures before kick-off. We called 51 of them correctly, 53%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was PSV Eindhoven to beat Willem II in Eredivisie, at 89.4%, and it held. It finished 7–0.
Where we were most wrong
West Ham United against West Bromwich Albion finished 1–3. We had published West Ham United to beat West Bromwich Albion at 75.3%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
24 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 15 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
9 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 4 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 21 competitions: League Two (11), League One (11), Championship (11).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →