Prediction review
Wednesday, 28 October 2026
On 2026-10-28 we had published a prediction for 28 fixtures before kick-off. We called 14 of them correctly, 50%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Bayern Munich to beat 1. FC Magdeburg in DFB-Pokal, at 83.7%, and it held. It finished 6–1.
Where we were most wrong
Inter Miami CF against FC Cincinnati finished 2–2. We had published Inter Miami CF to beat FC Cincinnati at 65.6%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
10 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 7 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
5 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 0 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 6 competitions: DFB-Pokal (8), EFL Cup (5), MLS (5).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →