Prediction review
Sunday, 25 October 2026
On 2026-10-25 we had published a prediction for 49 fixtures before kick-off. We called 23 of them correctly, 47%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Aris to beat Atromitos in Greek Super League, at 87.4%, and it held. It finished 3–1.
Where we were most wrong
Toulouse against Troyes finished 0–0. We had published Toulouse to beat Troyes at 73.0%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
17 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 10 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
3 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 0 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 14 competitions: Ligue 1 (5), Eredivisie (5), Premier League (5).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →