Prediction review
Saturday, 24 October 2026
On 2026-10-24 we had published a prediction for 104 fixtures before kick-off. We called 43 of them correctly, 41%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Atlético Madrid to beat Deportivo in La Liga, at 78.7%, and it held. It finished 1–0.
Where we were most wrong
Orlando City SC against New York City FC finished 2–2. We had published Orlando City SC to beat New York City FC at 69.4%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
18 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 12 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
18 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 7 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 21 competitions: League One (12), League Two (11), Championship (11).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →