Prediction review
Friday, 23 October 2026
On 2026-10-23 we had published a prediction for 21 fixtures before kick-off. We called 9 of them correctly.
Our strongest call, and it missed
The most confident thing we published was VfB Stuttgart to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach, at 72.1%. It finished 2–3. That is the day's boldest call and its largest error in one fixture. A model that is never surprised is not saying much; the question is whether it is surprised this often at this level, and that only answers itself over months rather than over one evening.
When we were confident
5 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 2 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
5 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 3 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 15 competitions: Ligue 2 (5), Liga Profesional Argentina (2), 2. Bundesliga (2).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →