Prediction review
Saturday, 17 October 2026
On 2026-10-17 we had published a prediction for 95 fixtures before kick-off. We called 50 of them correctly, 53%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Manchester City to beat Ipswich Town in Premier League, at 80.3%, and it held. It finished 3–2.
Where we were most wrong
Grimsby Town against Northampton Town finished 0–2. We had published Grimsby Town to beat Northampton Town at 67.9%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
16 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 12 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
12 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 3 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 19 competitions: League Two (12), League One (11), Championship (11).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →