Prediction review
Friday, 16 October 2026
On 2026-10-16 we had published a prediction for 17 fixtures before kick-off. We called 6 of them correctly.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Eintracht Frankfurt to beat FC Cologne in Bundesliga, at 77.4%, and it held. It finished 1–0.
Where we were most wrong
Annecy against AS Nancy Lorraine finished 1–2. We had published Annecy to beat AS Nancy Lorraine at 59.3%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
The ones we called close
4 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 2 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 13 competitions: Ligue 2 (4), 2. Bundesliga (2), Championship (1).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →