Prediction review
Wednesday, 14 October 2026
On 2026-10-14 we had published a prediction for 18 fixtures before kick-off. We called 13 of them correctly.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Liverpool to beat LASK Linz in UEFA Champions League, at 81.2%, and it held. It finished 3–6.
Where we were most wrong
Manchester City against Paris Saint-Germain finished 2–4. We had published Manchester City to beat Paris Saint-Germain at 56.2%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
The ones we called close
3 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 1 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 4 competitions: UEFA Champions League (8), MLS (5), Championship (4).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →