Prediction review
Tuesday, 13 October 2026
On 2026-10-13 we had published a prediction for 15 fixtures before kick-off. We called 8 of them correctly.
Our strongest call, and it missed
The most confident thing we published was Bayern Munich to beat Viking FK, at 85.3%. It finished 3–3. That is the day's boldest call and its largest error in one fixture. A model that is never surprised is not saying much; the question is whether it is surprised this often at this level, and that only answers itself over months rather than over one evening.
When we were confident
7 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 3 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
3 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 0 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 2 competitions: Championship (8), UEFA Champions League (7).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →