Prediction review
Sunday, 11 October 2026
On 2026-10-11 we had published a prediction for 58 fixtures before kick-off. We called 35 of them correctly, 60%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Aris to beat Volos NFC in Greek Super League, at 90.7%, and it held. It finished 3–2.
Where we were most wrong
Pachuca against Necaxa finished 3–3. We had published Pachuca to beat Necaxa at 77.1%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
19 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 15 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
9 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 6 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 19 competitions: Brasileirao (5), Serie A (5), Segunda Division (4).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →