Prediction review
Saturday, 10 October 2026
On 2026-10-10 we had published a prediction for 103 fixtures before kick-off. We called 53 of them correctly, 51%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Paris Saint-Germain to beat Le Mans in Ligue 1, at 85.5%, and it held. It finished 3–1.
Where we were most wrong
TSG Hoffenheim against Hamburg SV finished 2–3. We had published TSG Hoffenheim to beat Hamburg SV at 75.2%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
22 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 15 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
19 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 5 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 21 competitions: League One (12), League Two (12), Championship (10).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →