Prediction review
Tuesday, 6 October 2026
On 2026-10-06 we had published a prediction for 16 fixtures before kick-off. We called 9 of them correctly.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Albania to beat San Marino in Int: UEFA Nations League, at 89.0%, and it held. It finished 2–1.
Where we were most wrong
Russia against Nigeria finished 3–3. We had published Russia to beat Nigeria at 73.0%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
9 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 7 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
3 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 2 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 2 competitions: Int: UEFA Nations League (9), Int: Friendly (7).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →