Prediction review
Sunday, 4 October 2026
On 2026-10-04 we had published a prediction for 27 fixtures before kick-off. We called 12 of them correctly, 44%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Sporting Gijón to beat RC Celta Fortuna in Segunda Division, at 70.9%, and it held. It finished 3–2.
Where we were most wrong
Morocco against Mali finished 1–1. We had published Morocco to beat Mali at 69.3%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
7 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 4 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 5 competitions: Int: UEFA Nations League (8), Copa del Rey (7), Int: Friendly (5).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →