Prediction review
Saturday, 3 October 2026
On 2026-10-03 we had published a prediction for 37 fixtures before kick-off. We called 22 of them correctly, 59%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Russia to beat Namibia in Int: Friendly, at 92.2%, and it held. It finished 6–0.
Where we were most wrong
Walsall against Crawley Town finished 0–0. We had published Walsall to beat Crawley Town at 66.2%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
8 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 6 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
4 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 0 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 8 competitions: League Two (9), Int: Friendly (8), Int: UEFA Nations League (6).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →