Prediction review
Wednesday, 30 September 2026
On 2026-09-30 we had published a prediction for 8 fixtures before kick-off. We called 4 of them correctly.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Argentina to beat Bolivia in Int: Friendly, at 87.9%, and it held. It finished 4–0.
Where we were most wrong
Mauritius against Djibouti finished 0–0. We had published Mauritius to beat Djibouti at 67.7%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
The ones we called close
4 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 1 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 2 competitions: Int: Friendly (7), MLS (1).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →