Prediction review
Monday, 28 September 2026
On 2026-09-28 we had published a prediction for 10 fixtures before kick-off. We called 2 of them correctly.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Japan to beat Venezuela in Int: Friendly, at 69.6%, and it held. It finished 2–1.
Where we were most wrong
Georgia against Ukraine finished 0–0. We had published Ukraine to beat Georgia at 48.8%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
The ones we called close
4 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 1 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 3 competitions: Int: UEFA Nations League (6), Int: Friendly (3), Segunda Division (1).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →