Prediction review
Sunday, 27 September 2026
On 2026-09-27 we had published a prediction for 23 fixtures before kick-off. We called 12 of them correctly.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Malta to beat Liechtenstein in Int: Friendly, at 70.3%, and it held. It finished 2–0.
Where we were most wrong
Germany against Greece finished 0–1. We had published Germany to beat Greece at 67.7%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
7 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 5 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
4 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 1 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 5 competitions: Int: UEFA Nations League (8), Int: Friendly (8), Segunda Division (5).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →