Prediction review
Saturday, 26 September 2026
On 2026-09-26 we had published a prediction for 36 fixtures before kick-off. We called 13 of them correctly, 36%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Finland to beat San Marino in Int: UEFA Nations League, at 85.9%, and it held. It finished 0–7.
Where we were most wrong
Bulgaria against Luxembourg finished 1–2. We had published Bulgaria to beat Luxembourg at 70.5%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
8 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 4 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
9 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 6 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 7 competitions: League Two (10), Int: UEFA Nations League (8), MLS (5).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →