Prediction review
Sunday, 20 September 2026
On 2026-09-20 we had published a prediction for 65 fixtures before kick-off. We called 29 of them correctly, 45%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Fenerbahce to beat Eyupspor in Süper Lig, at 75.0%, and it held. It finished 8–0.
Where we were most wrong
FC Twente against PSV Eindhoven finished 3–2. We had published PSV Eindhoven to beat FC Twente at 61.9%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
15 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 14 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
8 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 3 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 16 competitions: Serie A (5), Segunda Division (5), Brasileirao (5).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →