Prediction review
Sunday, 13 September 2026
On 2026-09-13 we had published a prediction for 50 fixtures before kick-off. We called 24 of them correctly, 48%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Galatasaray to beat Kocaelispor in Süper Lig, at 83.0%, and it held. It finished 1–0.
Where we were most wrong
Celta Vigo against Málaga finished 1–1. We had published Celta Vigo to beat Málaga at 65.6%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
18 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 14 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
5 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 0 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 17 competitions: Greek Super League (5), Liga Profesional Argentina (4), La Liga (4).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →