Prediction review
Saturday, 12 September 2026
On 2026-09-12 we had published a prediction for 106 fixtures before kick-off. We called 37 of them correctly, 35%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Borussia Dortmund to beat SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga, at 81.0%, and it held. It finished 3–0.
Where we were most wrong
Olympiacos against OFI Crete finished 0–1. We had published Olympiacos to beat OFI Crete at 72.8%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
18 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 8 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
20 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 8 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 21 competitions: League Two (12), League One (11), Championship (10).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. Every day we have called → How the model is measured →