Prediction review
Sunday, 6 September 2026
On 2026-09-06 we had published a prediction for 58 fixtures before kick-off. We called 27 of them correctly, 47%.
Our strongest call, and it missed
The most confident thing we published was Telstar to beat SC Cambuur, at 79.7%. It finished 2–2. That is the day's boldest call and its largest error in one fixture. A model that is never surprised is not saying much; the question is whether it is surprised this often at this level, and that only answers itself over months rather than over one evening.
When we were confident
8 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 4 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
13 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 5 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 17 competitions: Serie B (6), Brasileirao (5), Serie A (4).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. How the model is measured →