Prediction review

Tuesday, 1 September 2026

11/28
calls correct
28
fixtures predicted before kick-off

On 2026-09-01 we had published a prediction for 28 fixtures before kick-off. We called 11 of them correctly, 39%.

Our strongest call

The call we backed hardest was Salford City to beat Newport County in League Two, at 60.5%, and it held. It finished 2–1.

Where we were most wrong

Parma against Cremonese finished 0–2. We had published Parma to beat Cremonese at 59.4%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.

The ones we called close

7 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 4 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.

Coverage

The day's predictions spanned 4 competitions: League Two (11), Championship (8), League One (7).

Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. How the model is measured →