Prediction review
Saturday, 29 August 2026
On 2026-08-29 we had published a prediction for 95 fixtures before kick-off. We called 38 of them correctly, 40%.
Our strongest call
The call we backed hardest was Galatasaray to beat Goztepe in Süper Lig, at 77.4%, and it held. It finished 3–2.
Where we were most wrong
Mainz against SC Paderborn 07 finished 0–0. We had published Mainz to beat SC Paderborn 07 at 73.2%, the largest confidence we placed on an outcome that did not happen. It stays on the record: a site that reports only its hits is not reporting a record, it is reporting a selection.
When we were confident
16 of the day's calls were at 60% or above. 9 of them landed. Over a single day that number means very little — it is the same figure across a month that says whether our stated confidence is honest.
The ones we called close
17 fixtures were split closely enough that no outcome reached 40%. 7 of them ended level. We publish these without pretending to a view: a fixture the model divides three ways is one it has little to tell you about, and saying so is more useful than manufacturing a lean.
Coverage
The day's predictions spanned 21 competitions: Championship (11), League Two (11), League One (9).
Only predictions published before the match day are counted. Results come from public fixture feeds. How the model is measured →