Tavernes de la Valldigna vs Valencia
Our model puts a Valencia win at 70.1% in this Copa del Rey fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.84 to 2.35.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,598 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.1% of the time — 256 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Valencia carry a rating of 1676 against 1501 for Tavernes de la Valldigna, a gap of 175 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Tavernes de la Valldigna's attack will struggle to break down Valencia's defence, by 122 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.