Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaen CF
Our model puts a Mijas Las Lagunas win at 38.6% in this Copa del Rey fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.61 to 1.59.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,629 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.6% of the time — 948 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1499 against 1494, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.