CD Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II

Monday, 9 November 2026 at 19:30

Win probability

56%

CD Sabadell wins

23%

Draw

21%

Real Sociedad II wins

xG Home

1.80

CD Sabadell

Blowout %

41%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.00

Real Sociedad II

Analysis

Our model puts a CD Sabadell win at 55.6% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.8 to 1.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,627 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 52.2% of the time — 510 fixtures in that band. That is 7.3 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.

Published 2 November 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export