Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town
Our model puts a Wimborne Town win at 56% in this FA Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.82 to 1.01.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.9% of the time — 497 fixtures in that band. That is 7.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Wimborne Town carry a rating of 1504 against 1370 for Crawley Town, a gap of 134 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Crawley Town are off their season peak
Crawley Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1370 today, 130 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
84.6% of Crawley Town's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
78.3% of the shots on target Crawley Town face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.