Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto
Our model puts a FC Porto win at 59% in this Primeira Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.85 to 1.77.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.9% of the time — 497 fixtures in that band. That is 7.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
FC Porto carry a rating of 1746 against 1511 for Vitoria de Guimaraes, a gap of 235 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, FC Porto's attack should find room against Vitória de Guimaraes's defence, by 167 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.