Virtus Entella vs Modena
Our model puts a Modena win at 43.3% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.17 to 1.44.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 922 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Modena's attack should find room against Virtus Entella's defence, by 103 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Virtus Entella are off their season peak
Virtus Entella peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1398 today, 102 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Virtus Entella struggles to hit the target: 28.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Modena take 15 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.