Villarreal vs Getafe
Our model puts a Villarreal win at 61% in this La Liga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.93 to 0.9.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.9% of the time — 497 fixtures in that band. That is 7.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Villarreal at 1.49, which implies about 67.1%. Our model has it at 61% — 6.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Villarreal's attack should find room against Getafe's defence, by 105 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Getafe struggles to hit the target: 26.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Getafe manage 9.7 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Getafe collect 4.2 cards a match, on 14.7 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
42.1% of Villarreal's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 19 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 61%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.