Vicenza vs Cremonese
Our model puts a Cremonese win at 43.5% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.12 to 1.41.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 922 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Cremonese carry a rating of 1539 against 1411 for Vicenza, a gap of 128 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Cremonese's attack should find room against Vicenza's defence, by 109 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Vicenza are off their season peak
Vicenza peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1411 today, 89 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.