VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC
Our model puts a VfL Bochum win at 56.9% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.75 to 0.91.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.9% of the time — 497 fixtures in that band. That is 7.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1558 against 1534, a gap of 24 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, VfL Bochum's attack should find room against Karlsruher SC's defence, by 118 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
VfL Bochum collect 3.4 cards a match, on 14.1 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.