Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 17:30

Win probability

66%

Union St.-Gilloise wins

19%

Draw

14%

Racing Genk wins

xG Home

2.23

Union St.-Gilloise

Blowout %

59%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.92

Racing Genk

Analysis

Our model puts an Union St.-Gilloise win at 66.3% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.23 to 0.92.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.6% of the time — 247 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Union St.-Gilloise are on a run

Union St.-Gilloise arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 15 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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