Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 20:00

Win probability

35%

Unión (Santa Fe) wins

25%

Draw

40%

Vélez Sarsfield wins

xG Home

1.38

Unión (Santa Fe)

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.48

Vélez Sarsfield

Analysis

Our model puts a Vélez Sarsfield win at 39.7% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.38 to 1.48.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 922 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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