TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04
Our model puts a TSG Hoffenheim win at 58.2% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.8 to 0.9.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.9% of the time — 497 fixtures in that band. That is 7.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
TSG Hoffenheim carry a rating of 1675 against 1572 for Schalke 04, a gap of 103 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, TSG Hoffenheim's attack should find room against Schalke 04's defence, by 190 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
TSG Hoffenheim are off their season peak
TSG Hoffenheim peaked at 1720 this season and sit at 1675 today, 45 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
TSG Hoffenheim take 15.9 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
56.6% of the shots on target TSG Hoffenheim face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.