Toluca vs Monterrey

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 01:00

Win probability

45%

Toluca wins

24%

Draw

31%

Monterrey wins

xG Home

1.68

Toluca

Blowout %

59%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.35

Monterrey

Analysis

Our model puts a Toluca win at 45.1% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.68 to 1.35.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1506 against 1512, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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