Sporting Gijón vs Real Valladolid

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 17:30

Win probability

51%

Sporting Gijón wins

25%

Draw

24%

Real Valladolid wins

xG Home

1.63

Sporting Gijón

Blowout %

39%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.03

Real Valladolid

Analysis

Our model puts a Sporting Gijón win at 51.1% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.63 to 1.03.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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