Seattle Sounders FC vs LAFC

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 00:00

Win probability

46%

Seattle Sounders FC wins

25%

Draw

29%

LAFC wins

xG Home

1.54

Seattle Sounders FC

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.17

LAFC

Analysis

Our model puts a Seattle Sounders FC win at 45.8% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.17.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1483 against 1496, a gap of 13 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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