SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Our model puts a SC Freiburg win at 67.1% in this Bundesliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.03 to 0.74.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.6% of the time — 247 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
SC Freiburg carry a rating of 1754 against 1630 for 1. FC Union Berlin, a gap of 124 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, SC Freiburg's attack should find room against 1. FC Union Berlin's defence, by 127 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Early or late
75% of 1. FC Union Berlin's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 65%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.