Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente
Our model puts a Santa Clara win at 49.5% in this Primeira Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.49 to 0.95.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
Santa Clara struggles to hit the target: 28.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Santa Clara collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.3 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.