San Lorenzo vs Platense
Our model puts a San Lorenzo win at 49.9% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.59 to 1.04.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1500 against 1485, a gap of 15 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.