Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
Our model puts a Real Sociedad win at 50.1% in this La Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.66 to 1.1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1707 against 1712, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Rayo Vallecano's attack should find room against Real Sociedad's defence, by 94 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Real Sociedad are on a run
Real Sociedad arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Real Sociedad collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
42.9% of Real Sociedad's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 21 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.