Olympiacos vs PAOK
Our model puts an Olympiacos win at 53.4% in this Greek Super League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.66 to 0.96.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Olympiacos are on a run
Olympiacos arrive on 8 straight wins, part of 8 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Behind the defence
53.7% of the shots on target PAOK face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.