Oldham Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday
Our model puts an Oldham Athletic win at 44.7% in this FA Cup fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.48 to 1.14.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 922 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1463 against 1434, a gap of 29 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Sheffield Wednesday are off their season peak
Sheffield Wednesday peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1434 today, 66 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.