Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 00:00

Win probability

43%

Minnesota United FC wins

25%

Draw

32%

San Jose Earthquakes wins

xG Home

1.57

Minnesota United FC

Blowout %

42%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.33

San Jose Earthquakes

Analysis

Our model puts a Minnesota United FC win at 42.9% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.57 to 1.33.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 922 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1481 against 1500, a gap of 19 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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