Le Havre AC vs Lorient
Our model puts a Lorient win at 46.7% in this Ligue 1 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.17 to 1.59.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Le Havre AC at 2.75, which implies about 36.4%. Our model has it at 28.3% — 8.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Lorient carry a rating of 1660 against 1542 for Le Havre AC, a gap of 118 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.