Ipswich Town vs AFC Bournemouth
Our model puts an AFC Bournemouth win at 52.6% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.01 to 1.67.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
AFC Bournemouth carry a rating of 1838 against 1635 for Ipswich Town, a gap of 203 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AFC Bournemouth's attack should find room against Ipswich Town's defence, by 264 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
AFC Bournemouth are on a run
AFC Bournemouth arrive on 6 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Early or late
38.9% of AFC Bournemouth's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.